Fifth Cable Cut To Middle East

You may have noticed a number of stories recently about undersea cables getting cut around the world. Apparently the total is now up to 5, but the scariest part of this is that Iran is now offline. You can also read Schneier's comments on this coincidence. Update: 02/06 17:42 GMT by Z : As a commenter notes, though the country of Iran is obviously experiencing some networking difficulties, it is not offline.

Goldfinger meets Pogo

"Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action."
-Auric Goldfinger

But who is the enemy?

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Why can I picture George Dubbya Bush in a scuba suit, holding a giant pair of sheers and screaming "I'll cut off the terrorist's interweb tubes!"

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I doubt it. If anything, we would want Iran to have 100% free and uncensored access for all citizens.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Our government doesn't want that for us so why would they want it for others?

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Because an informed populace promotes change, especially when grave injustices are being done and the local government is shielding its populace from it. Elected US officials don't want an informed populace because they would be putting their own political lives on the line. That and infrastructure is expensive.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

(Posted in code so they can't understand it:)

You are positing a hertofore unshown level of intelegence and understanding of the complexities of the mindset of countries other than the USA in the USA's current leadership. I respectfully suggest that they are more likely to try the direct approach, despite the accilary effects strengthening their enemies position. This seems to meet with the past record of those leaders actions.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I couldn't help noticing you posted as AC. What's the big deal?

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I doubt it. If anything, we would want Iran to have 100% free and uncensored access for all citizens.

Impossible. That would enable them to share music and movies. Hollywood would go bankrupt.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I doubt it. If anything, we would want Iran to have 100% free and uncensored access for all citizens.

A responsible citizen, yes, would want the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands, and make sure that their government leaders are accountable and responsible.

On the other hand, if you're an American politician trying to sell a war, Fear Uncertainty, and Doubt play very well to your cause on both sides of the table.

As it stands, I don't believe that the Iranian people are all too upset at their government. Although their approach to civil rights is a bit backwards from the Western perspective, it's been that way for several generations (and is largely the fault of previous American and European intervention in the region). Likewise, the Iranian government doesn't strike me as being all that secretive.

I hate to defend the current Iranian regime, but I don't believe for a moment that it's remotely as bad as Bush makes it out to be.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I think you've got a few things totally backwards here, I'll try and explain the Iranian situation in a (full-post-sized) nutshell.

A responsible citizen, yes, would want the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands, and make sure that their government leaders are accountable and responsible.

On the other hand, if you're an American politician trying to sell a war, Fear Uncertainty, and Doubt play very well to your cause on both sides of the table.

First off America is pretty war weary (to put it lightly), I really doubt trying to push another war though is a great political move.
Secondly; Bush doesn't have to please to general public, he's on his last legs whether whether or not he kindles some favor.

As it stands, I don't believe that the Iranian people are all too upset at their government.

It's a lot more complicated than that. Mahmoud came in promising wealth for the poor, and has delivered in many cases, but failed elsewhere. At the moment the Iranian economy isn't going well (e.g. inflation at 25%, according to non-government sources), and there has even been gas rationing (in a country with massive gas reserves!) which really didn't go down too well.
Then you have the Islamic reforms, with headscarfs being more strictly enforced and a suppression of the clothing young Iranians want to wear. This is popular with some but not others. There's also suppression of government criticism in the media, and media also needs to be very tame (think FCC-on-steriods). (Young) Iranians aren't ignorant (as I understand Iranian education stands out from other Middle-Eastern countries by a long way); they are often pro-West and pro-reform, and they don't like the media oppression or Mahmoud jailing the students which lead protests.

The nuclear program is an interesting one. It seems that, like Chavez, Mahmoud likes to be seen as a crusader for the little guy, even if it doesn't parallel what goes on in Iran. What's ironic is that you say Bush is stirring this up to gain some political favor, when in fact the opposite is true; Mahmoud milks the Iran vs the evil empire angle for all it's worth.
When they reach a new threshold with uranium enrichment, or manage to launch a satellite, cue the government media's patriotic music and euphoria. (I feel I need to point out that this is actual government media, not to be confused with the tin-foil Fox-is-controlled-by-the-government "government media")

Iran getting powerful weapons, launching satellites, and capturing British soldiers in defiance of the West is great for Mahmoud, and ever since a US report came out last year saying that they aren't pursuing nuclear weapons to the extent previously thought Mahmoud has become less and less popular.
I've read that in Iran they joke that Mahmoud wouldn't bother with his nuclear program if the US wasn't opposed to it.

Not only have his lesser government members begun to criticize his policy, but he recently got snubbed by the Supreme Leader of Iran himself, something which is a big political blow for him. (It's like a member of the Vatican getting chided by the Pope for something he said; it's not supposed to happen)

Likewise, the Iranian government doesn't strike me as being all that secretive.

Read up about Natanz and Iran's dealings with the IAEA. Even Russia, who has supported and assisted with Iran's civilian nuclear program, is now saying they are concerned about Iran's recent satellite launch.

One thing for sure is that Iran is not Iraq 2. There aren't many parallels between them, and the biggest and most important difference in my opinion is this: In Iran Mahmoud is subject to checks and balances, he isn't a dictator and he has to watch where he treads. Economic sanctions and internal political pressure will definitely be enough, I would be astonished if it came to war.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I don't believe that the Iranian people are all too upset at their government.

Actually, they are. It's just that our actions keep bringing them together, whereas if we left them alone they'd change drastically.

I went to an Iran speech by Gary Sick http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Sick [wikipedia.org] (former Carter adviser & author of October Surprise http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise_conspiracy [wikipedia.org]) where he argued that Iranian politics is somewhat similar to American politics.

For example, we aren't too happy with George W Bush, our current leader, yet when a tragedy happens or we are threatened, we seem to rally behind the current leader.

The only ones who benefit from international saber-rattling are the "establishment" who would otherwise be kicked out of power. There is actually a lot of discontent with the current leadership of Iran, but by threatening Iran we only strengthen them.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Who cares about them, doesn't anybody realize that we're cut of from the Iranian network? What will I do without Ahmadinejad's delightful blog?

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

The word you were searching for is "intact". It's one word, not two.

And I'm sure that it is. They are also not offline, as my buddy with a plain home connection is still chatting with me, so they obviously aren't feeling too hurt by it.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Intact.

Unless you meant that the network is inside a small nail.

(Also their but I've just about given up on that one.)

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I'm sure they meant that Iran's internal net infrastructure is turning into the wind.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Never give up! The illiterati must be destroyed, or at least beaten with a dictionary.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I'd like to believe the US isn't behind it for any number of reasons. One of those many reasons that occurs to me is the precedent it sets: if we declare that cutting cables is a valid way of pursuing foreign policy, what implications does that have for the US, who has more cables than anyone, relies on their cables more than anyone, and has the most $$$ invested in those cables? Put simply, if cables become fair game, the US has more to lose than anyone else. The powers-that-be couldn't be that stupid, could they? Sure, they're stupid enough to start a senseless war that's quagmired our foreign policy and military, but to do something stupid enough to threaten our livelihood (and pr0n)? (this is a half-sarcastic, half-pleading comment. I know that they really could be that stupid.)

Keep in mind, too, that these cables aren't, for the most part, state owned assets like radar stations or bridges - they are the private assets of companies and conglomerates, who have invested many billions in their installation. Those conglomerates are able to pursue the US for damages much more effectively than, say, Iran.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I'd like to believe the US isn't behind it for any number of reasons. One of those many reasons that occurs to me is the precedent it sets: if we declare that cutting cables is a valid way of pursuing foreign policy, what implications does that have for the US

Not that I think we're doing this, and I do believe you have a valid point. But... that's the same reason we used to have a hard-line stance against torture. I don't think we've been doing particularly well lately at considering the consequences of our actions. It seems like the powers that be are so utterly convinced that they are right that they cannot grasp the possibility that something bad may come of their actions.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

I'd like to believe the US isn't behind it for any number of reasons.

I'd like to believe that too, and I think your reasons are valid.

My guess is Islamic isolationists. That is, those people that, ever since Qutb [wikipedia.org], believe that that West is a corrupting influence on Islam. Internet access is a prime way for such influence to occur, so they would seem to have a very strong motivation to do this sort of thing.

Just a random theory, but none of the other ones make much sense to me.

Except that Iran has NOT gone "offline"

Oops. [slashdot.org]

So when the basic, sole premise and of the story is wrong, and by extension the clear implication, where do we go from there?

Re:Except that Iran has NOT gone "offline"

So when the basic, sole premise and of the story is wrong, and by extension the clear implication, where do we go from there?

I'm not sure. Traditionally someone says something about Katz or Piquapille, but it's not so easy here.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

The plot is much more sinister than we think. Step 1: Cut cables Step 2: Post story on Slashdot Step 3: Have everyone ping Iranian servers to death to prove story wrong Step 4: ??? Step 5: PROFIT!

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

... Step 3: Have everyone ping Iranian servers to death to prove story wrong ...

Heh. I read that while having a few traceroutes running in other windows, testing times to a few sites in Iran. All of them do pretty well from here (Boston) as far as the sites in New York, Amsterdam, and Turkey, with ping times mostly under 200 ms. Then the packets go to numbered machines without DNS addresses, and the ping times jump to over 500 ms. I'd thought that this was probably a sign of satellite hops, but now I wonder. Maybe it's just that we've slashdotted all the routers. Ya think?

The government site at www.iran.ir doesn't repond to pings, but it does respond on port 80 in the usual manner. It is sorta slow, but firefox doesn't time it out.

I don't read Farsi, so I can't tell much about what it says. There are some familiar faces at the upper left, though. ;-)

Non Dollar Oil Trading

Iran's Oil Bourse [presstv.ir] is the target. Can't have the world trading oil in non-dollar currency. Nowadays, you cut the Internet and there won't be much trading. Props to Jeremiah Cornelius for the link.

Re:Goldfinger meets Pogo

Not necessarily related, but IMHO interesting:
The US Navy has had to deal with fishing boats intentionally dragging their lines across cables many times. Around their Japanese bases, the US had a couple of data lines strewn along the ocean floor. If the lines were cut, the Navy would have to fix them. To do that, they had to keep fishing boats out of the area when they were working, so they would compensate the fishermen.

Obvious Japanese fisherman's solution:
1) Drag anchor across US data line.
2) Skip work and receive generous compensation.
3) $ Profit $

What they are thinking.

Hmmm, let me see. Is this one it? No that's Syria. Is this it? No that's Saudi Arabia. Ah, here we go, Iran.

Iran has NOT "offline"

...and has NOT lost net connectivity.

One router in Iran -- the one that happens to be used by Internet Traffic Report [internettr...report.com] -- is unreachable. As are dozens of single points on the internet in many states in the region.

A quick perusal of, e.g., newspaper web sites in Iran [onlinenewspapers.com] finds every one I have tried working fine, including all state-run media. As is the web site of the Government of Iran [www.iran.ir] and numerous other government and press web sites physically located in Iran. See for yourself. [google.com] (And yes, I am aware that simply ending in .ir does not mean the site is necessarily physically in Iran, but you can easily verify [arin.net] that nearly all of them are.)

I know all of you are just itching to believe it's a US information operation (I love some of the articles..."a secret Pentagon strategy called 'information warfare'" -- uh, guys, I hate to break this to you, but it's not a secret) to cut Iran off from the internet in advance of the secret Iran invasion that Bush -- er, Cheney -- is oh-so-obviously planning.

No one ever said that one ship damaged all the cables. What was said was that a single ship probably cut two cables in a particular area off Egypt. But that has been called into doubt in that location. Unfortunately, it isn't clear exactly where some of the cables have been damaged, so simply because one area didn't have a ship doesn't mean it wasn't possible for it to be damaged elsewhere.

Even if someone is cutting the cables, as telecom and undersea cable experts believe is unlikely, it would be better to actually consider the facts of the situation, instead of feeing the conspiracy mill with garbage like "Iran is offline" when it clearly isn't? How about waiting until the cables are raised to see what kind of damage has been caused?

But if you want to believe one guy's blog post that "Iran is offline", which ends with:

this author actually dug a bit deeper and found a trail that leads from the owners of most of these internet cables all the way back to some very, very large companies in the U.S. and in the U.K. Which companies you ask? Who is behind this?

Well, that's the topic for my next post. You'll have to subscribe to my RSS feed and stay tuned for my findings. Don't worry, the wait will be short.

...then be my guest. How convenient! If we want to learn "which" big evil companies are behind what is obviously a US operation to cut Iran off from the internet, all we have to do is subscribe to his ad-laden blog!

Or, we could perhaps consider that "[m]ost telecommunications experts and cable operators say that sabotage seems unlikely." [iht.com]

Or, we could perhaps believe the facts, which is that Iran is not "offline", as I have illustrated above.

It seems that the premise to this story -- namely, that Iran is "offline" -- is patently incorrect. So, since that is untrue, what are the motivations of people who want to believe this is a prelude to war?

That lying about it somehow serves a greater purpose?

Oh, and by the way, for all you pushers of the Information Warfare theory, keep in mind that it runs both ways. I wouldn't be surprised before Iran picks up on the conspiracy stories and starts promoting that itself. What a great way to detract attention from its continuing defiance of the world community -- no, not just the US -- on its nuclear processing.

Re:Iran has NOT "offline"

Omg... Get your tinfoil hat hating ass out of here. This is slashdot! Everything is a conspiracy! Iran is being slowly disconnected from the internet so that the US can bomb them and nobody will know! Because reporters couldn't ever tell us about it without the interwab!

Sheesh.

Re:Iran has NOT "offline"

A quick perusal of, e.g., newspaper web sites in Iran finds every one I have tried working fine, including all state-run media. As is the web site of the Government of Iran and numerous other government and press web sites physically located in Iran. See for yourself.

Jeez, if this goes on Iran will be offline - it will be slashdotted. But maybe that was the plan all along...

Re:Iran has NOT "offline"

...and has NOT lost net connectivity.

Meanwhile, at the NWO headquarters:

Underling: "President Bush, Iran still isn't offline!"
Bush: "Dammit, Osama, what the fuck am I paying you for?"
Bin Laden: "Sorry Sir, I'll get right on it"
Elvis: "And get it right this time!"

Re:Iran has NOT "offline"

just called some family (in Iran)...asked them if their 'net was up. they said yea...asked me if mine was up. I said no...damn comcast.

Re:Iran has NOT "offline"

And Israel's beef with Asia is?

And India, who is on pretty decent terms with Israel...I mean Israel wants the data lines cut why?

I'd give more respect to aliens planning an Independence Day attack credence than some of the bologne on Slashdot comments at the moment.

Traffic Intercept

Cut all the alternate paths until the traffic you desire to capture comes through your surveillance hub.

not-so-thick-tinfoil

Is it really offline this time?

I remember last time a cable cut was reported they said Iran was offline that time as well. I'm not so sure Iran is really offline now either. I have been clicking into the websites of various Iranian universities [wikipedia.org] and all of the ones I've checked so far are up, although some are kind of slow. While I guess it's possible some of them are hosting their main websites offshore, I doubt all of them are. Unfortunately, the routers here block outgoing traceroute for some dumb reason, so I can't verify for sure, but it seems like Iran is not as offline as we might think.

It's just an attempt to get traffic

He says he knows it all he will just wait until his next post to tell you all, so this is where "journalism" is heading. It's all about the money of course, but it's actually the first time it's been so clear.

I don't think s/he has anything.

How many?

Didn't they say Iran was completely offline when the third cable was cut? Then I hear a fourth cable was and they were "now they're offline"! Now there's a fifth cable cut and the news is saying "Now they're REALLY REALLY offline!". And yet it still appears that they are still not offline.

So, how many fscking cables do they have and can they please tell us exactly how many have to go down before I can't ping a single thing in Iran? I don't wanna go through this on the next 12 cables . . .

Re:How many?

So, how many fscking cables do they have and can they please tell us exactly how many have to go down before I can't ping a single thing in Iran? I don't wanna go through this on the next 12 cables . . .

Surely your military advisers would give you a better answer than /. George...

riiight.

from TFA "However, this author actually dug a bit deeper and found a trail that leads from the owners of most of these internet cables all the way back to some very, very large companies in the U.S. and in the U.K. Which companies you ask? Who is behind this?"

what. the. fuck?

the author clearly has his tinfoil underpants and armadillo hat on. I mean come on, whilst I realize that almost everything can be turned into a conspiracy theory this is too much. Accidents happen all the time and I remember reading that some of this outage is due to routing maintenance. Occams Razor, to me the facts as reported seem simpler then some ulterior motive and cable cutting gear.

Re:riiight.

the author clearly has his tinfoil underpants and armadillo hat on.

I call it Battlestar Syndrome. It's like Munchausen Syndrome (there's also Battlestar By Proxy Syndrome), except instead of trying to draw attention or sympathy, they wish to be seen as some sort of rebel ("a rag tag rebel fleet") fighting against some shadowy conspiracy. They actually thing the US is now the worst fascist dictatorship ever to exist, and that the creepy Half Life G-Man is tracking their comic book and grocery purchases with 50 special agents and six supercomputers deep beneath the Earth's crust.

Oh boy. Here comes some more modding down by folks who can;t take a joke.

Cables get cut all the time, news at 11

According to an acquaintance who works for an ISP, the weird thing isn't that these cables are broken, it's that all of a sudden it's news. There are always issues with submarine systems. That is why we have so many repair ships in the global fleet:

list of [iscpc.org] ships [iscpc.org]

Egypt Loses Its Wireless Connectivity

The conspiracy theorists just got more fodder. A low-flying plane cut Egypt's wireless Internet connectivity [bbspot.com].

Iran not "off internet" but strange routes taken

The Iran Institute of Science and Technology ( http://www.iust.ac.ir/ [iust.ac.ir] ) is online, and their servers are physically in Iran, but a traceroute from Roadrunner in New York, NY shows traffic going the wrong way around the world.

Tracing route to www.iust.ac.ir [194.225.228.25]

over a maximum of 30 hops:

    1 1 ms 1 ms 1 ms 194.225.228.25
    2 8 ms 9 ms 11 ms 10.39.192.1
    3 12 ms 8 ms 7 ms gig-4-3-nycmnyg-rtr1.nyc.rr.com [24.29.98.109]
    4 8 ms 9 ms 8 ms pos-3-2-nycmnya-rtr1.nyc.rr.com [24.29.130.129]
    5 10 ms 9 ms 10 ms tenge-3-0-0-nwrknjmd-rtr.nyc.rr.com [24.29.119.106]
    6 10 ms 9 ms 10 ms 4.79.188.37
    7 23 ms 18 ms 17 ms ae-32-54.ebr2.Newark1.Level3.net [4.68.99.126]
    8 29 ms 18 ms 14 ms ae-4.ebr2.Washington1.Level3.net [4.69.132.101]
    9 20 ms 16 ms 19 ms ae-92-92.csw4.Washington1.Level3.net [4.69.134.158]
  10 14 ms 18 ms 13 ms ae-94-94.ebr4.Washington1.Level3.net [4.69.134.189]
  11 89 ms 91 ms 89 ms ae-4.ebr3.LosAngeles1.Level3.net [4.69.132.81]
  12 84 ms * 84 ms ae-93-93.csw4.LosAngeles1.Level3.net [4.69.137.46]
  13 84 ms 81 ms 86 ms ae-4-99.edge3.LosAngeles1.Level3.net [4.68.20.201]
  14 84 ms 85 ms 83 ms SINGAPORE-T.edge3.LosAngeles1.Level3.net [4.78.195.202]
  15 118 ms 84 ms 83 ms ge-7-1-0-0.laxow-cr2.ix.singtel.com [203.208.183.81]
  16 85 ms 274 ms 84 ms ge-4-1-0-0.laxow-cr2.ix.singtel.com [203.208.183.90]
  17 276 ms 265 ms 282 ms so-3-0-1-0.sngc3-cr2.ix.singtel.com [203.208.149.185]
  18 338 ms 253 ms 269 ms ge-0-0-0-0.sngtp-dr1.ix.singtel.com [203.208.149.78]
  19 254 ms 272 ms 264 ms GigabitEthernet1-1-1.sngtp-ar4.ix.singtel.com [203.208.183.114]
  20 284 ms 287 ms 303 ms 203.208.192.226
  21 298 ms 286 ms 290 ms 217.218.155.201
  22 301 ms 299 ms 292 ms 217.218.163.252
  23 328 ms 319 ms 292 ms 194.225.239.254
  24 298 ms 294 ms 303 ms 194.225.228.25

Trace complete.

We'd never be so obvious

With all of our technology and our superior intelligence community, why would we be so naiive as to think that cutting cables wouldn't be an obvious ploy to disrupt communications among Middle Eastern countries, and so that tactic would only backfire on us? Unless, our intelligence community calculated that everyone would think it was obvious, so that we'd never do it because everyone would immediately know it was us. But then, people would realize that we knew that they knew we'd think it was an obvious ploy and therefore no one would believe we'd done it, so then they would't believe we'd done it, all just to throw them off. But then, people would realize that we knew that they knew that we'd knew they'd knew... forget it. I'm going back to sleep.

I need some reference please

Does anyone know how often undersea cables normally have issues? Sure, 5 cuts in an area *seems* high to me, but then again, I don't have any frame of reference.

So, what is the statistical probability of an undersea cable having a minor, major, or catastrophic issue? If it's once a week, then perhaps we have an anomoly of location, not an anomoly of frequency.

I remember seeing some Discovery Channel show on how they end up fixing those cables, and it was rather interesting. I also have some fuzzy memory of how there are multiple boats designed to do this kind of repair work, and they are usually busy out at sea fixing *something*. I get the feeling (this is where my plea for verification comes in), that 5 cuts may not actually be TOO unusual.

Cthulhu?

Now we know where Cthulhu stands on the issue of net neutrality.

The measure of a theory of behavior

The measure of a theory of behavior is not "Does this action/occurrence further the given goal?", but "Given a hypothesis that group X is pursuing goal Y, is the action Z the best action X can take?"

Let's take the goal of "cutting off Iran's information before an attack by the US". Does cutting the cables in this manner "further that goal"? Yes, it does. However, given that goal, would the US military consider this its best action? Hell no! If the US Military wants to cut off your internet, they're not going to give you a lead time of several days; they're going to cut off